Brewers 2024 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation and where things stand after offseason upheaval

Projected rotation

1. RHP Freddy Peralta
2. LHP Wade Miley
3. RHP Jakob Junis
4. RHP Colin Rea
5. LHP DL Hall

Peralta, Miley, and Rea are what's left standing from last year's rotation. (Brandon Woodruff is expected to miss a chunk of the year following offseason surgery.) Junis and Hall are new additions who might have workload limitations. Junis has cleared 100 innings once since the start of the 2020 season; Hall has never topped that mark in his professional career. 

Projected bullpen

• Setup: RHP Trevor Megill, RHP Joel Payamps
  
  
• Middle: RHP Abner Uribe, LHP Hoby Mlner
• Long: RHP Joe Ross

You'll note that Devin Williams, one of the best closers in baseball, is not listed. He's expected to miss several months after being diagnosed with fractures in his back. We haven't designated anyone as Milwaukee's closer in his absence, but we will touch more on what that situation could look like below. Keep an eye on Uribe either way. He's young and extremely intriguing, as evidenced by a debut strike out 39 batters in 30 innings.

How good can Chourio be?

We know this much: the Brewers really believe in Jackson Chourio. They signed him to an historic $82 million contract extension over the winter, before he had so much as taken a big-league swing. (Indeed, he still has all of six games of Triple-A experience under his belt.) CBS Sports is high on Chourio as well. We ranked him as the seventh best prospect in the game earlier this spring. Here's what we wrote at the time: 

Chourio, the breakout star of the 2022 minor-league season, is a dynamic talent. He's the rare player who can launch opposite-field home runs with regularity, as well as put infielders in a blender on would-be routine grounders. (There was a game in late April against the Angels' Double-A affiliate where he recorded infield singles to the shortstop and the third baseman in consecutive frames.) Some evaluators have expressed hit-tool concerns generated by his aggressive approach. It's a fair consideration, but Chourio has earned the benefit of the doubt by holding his own in the upper minors at such a young age. If everything clicks, he'll provide the Brewers with their fifth 30/30 season. And their sixth, their seventh, their eighth, and so on.

Chourio just celebrated his 20th birthday on March 11, meaning that he'll play the entire season at that age and become the youngest position player the Brewers have ever employed. Orlando Arcia, the second-youngest recent Brewer, was 21 for a few days after he debuted in 2016. Chourio, then, is in uncharted territory in Milwaukee. 

How good can a 20-year-old be? For some perspective, we ran a query using Baseball Reference's Stathead engine to compile the best age-20 seasons since the last round of expansion in 1998. Here's a breakdown of the Wins Above Replacement totals for the 18 players who received at least 300 plate appearances in that season:

• 10+: 1 (Mike Trout)
• 5 to 9: 2
• 3 to 5: 8
• 1 to 3: 3
• Less than 1: 4

There's a lot of selection bias at play here. A lot of survivor bias, too. The 20-year-olds who were clearly overmatched are excluded because teams wouldn't allow them to reach 300 plate appearances and potentially hinder their development. (To wit, only five 20-year-olds have finished with negative WAR and more than 100 trips to the plate since 1998.)

So, the takeaways here are 1) that Chourio's age may not prevent him from being a legitimate contributor this season; and, 2) if he doesn't appear up to it, expect the Brewers to demote him quickly.

Who closes in Williams' place?

As we noted above, Devin Williams is expected to miss around three months with multiple back fractures. Williams has become one of the top closers in the sport over recent years, amassing a 1.75 ERA (241 ERA+) and a 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2020. He's estimated to have contributed 7.5 Wins Above Replacement during that time, but his actual value might fall closer to his 12.24 Win Probability Added mark.

Whatever the case, the Brewers and first-year manager Pat Murphy will have to figure out who, exactly, takes over the ninth-inning responsibilities. As best as we can tell, the Brewers have four legitimate candidates: Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill. Here's how those pitchers performed last season in comparison to Williams:

Williams

58.2

1.53

3.11

Payamps

70.2

2.55

4.53

Wilson

76.2

2.58

2.77

Uribe

30.2

1.76

1.95

Megill

34.2

3.63

4.33

If we had to guess, Payamps is the most likely choice should Murphy and crew decide on one stand-in. He had the second-highest leverage index on the Brewers among full-time relievers (Williams was the only pitcher ahead of him), and he's both more experienced and older than the other pitchers presented in that table.

The most intriguing choice, for our money, is Uribe. He's a 23-year-old whose sinker clocked in at 99.4 mph on average and whose slider generated 58% whiffs. Uribe did struggle with his command, walking about six batters per nine innings. Still, he has the kind of young, exciting arm that captures the imagination.

What would make for a successful season?

It has to be making the postseason. The Brewers should be right in the thick of the National League Central race, according to most forecast models. That doesn't guarantee they will be -- injuries and unexpected performances are part of the joy and agony of baseball -- but at this point it's fair to think of them as a contender.

If the Brewers fall short of those expectations, we suppose the next best thing would for some of their youngsters -- like Chourio and Uribe, two of the players we spotlighted here -- taking steps forward to establish themselves as parts of the new core. There's no reason to think both developments can't occur simultaneously.