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The Windup: Jordan Montgomery signing has NL West looking tough; will the Blue Jays put it all together?

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Opening Day is tomorrow, and Jordan Montgomery is a Diamondback. We also have notes on Zac Gallen, and our team preview tour goes through Toronto and Detroit. I'm Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup!

Jordan Montgomery's contract a bargain for D-Backs

Jordan Montgomery is a Diamondback.

It's funnier if you imagine Montgomery missing the Rangers' team bus after the World Series, living inside Chase Field all winter, à la Tom Hanks in "The Terminal" (2004) — eating from the concession stands, blasting music on the PA at full volume for one-man dance parties — until yesterday, when the Diamondbacks arrived at Chase Field for the regular season and got a real fright upon opening the door.

Real life is far less entertaining, but the fictional version would make more sense as to why a World Series hero is signing for just one guaranteed year at $25 million, a lower total guarantee than — no offense — Robert Stephenson of the Angels (three years and $33 million).

Montgomery's AAV is higher, of course, and there are vesting options. If he makes 10 starts, he'll be guaranteed $20 million in 2025, with an additional $2.5 million when he hits 18 and 23 starts. But it's still an unseemly end to the saga of the Boras Four, none of whom got contracts even approaching projections. (Tim Britton projected Montgomery at five years and $105 million.)

It's a bargain for the Diamondbacks, who we thought had already made their splash by signing Eduardo Rodriguez. Instead, Rodriguez and Montgomery join what is suddenly a pretty daunting rotation. Give Mike Hazen credit: He didn't just acknowledge a shortcoming, he addressed it.

With the Giants signing Blake Snell, the Padres trading for Dylan Cease and the Dodgers building a West Coast Death Star, the NL West now looks a bit like …

With more on another Diamondbacks pitcher, here's Ken.

Ken's Notebook: Gallen itching to return to World Series

From my latest column:

Don Larsen's perfect game is the only complete-game no-hitter in World Series history. In Game 5 of last year's Series, Zac Gallen thought he was going to join Larsen in October lore.

"I even said it after the game to my dad — if I could have gotten Seager out, I felt like I could have had a no-hitter," the Arizona Diamondbacks' right-hander said. "That's how locked in I felt."

Gallen, of course, did not get Corey Seager out. Seager, the Texas Rangers' shortstop, was the Series MVP. But his single off Gallen leading off the seventh inning, as Rangers catcher Jonah Heim noted, came on, "an un-Corey-esque swing."

The sequence — third baseman Evan Longoria shifting into the shortstop hole, Gallen throwing a knuckle-curve on 1-2, Seager dribbling an opposite-field single through the left side — broke up the no-hitter. The Rangers went on to close out the Series at Chase Field that night, overshadowing Gallen's brilliance, reducing him to just another losing pitcher.

As another season dawns, Gallen's near-miss serves as an example of why baseball remains so compelling. The Diamondbacks probably would not have won the Series even if Gallen had completed the no-hitter. But the potential for magic on any given night, whether in a ho-hum regular-season contest or on the game's biggest stage, is the essence of the sport.

Gallen, coming off his first postseason, aches to return. And the Diamondbacks improved their chances of making that happen Tuesday, reaching an agreement with free-agent left-hander Montgomery. The deal will give the team a formidable rotation of Gallen, Montgomery, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt and, once he is healthy, Rodriguez.

"You realize how hard it is to get there, how many things have to go right," Gallen said. "It puts it into perspective. And the perspective makes you want to get back there. Every time could be the last time, who knows? A lot of guys have unbelievable careers and never get to the World Series or win a World Series. You want to keep doing it. You want to do it more."

Gallen, 28, is one of the game's top pitchers. He finished third in last year's National League Cy Young Award voting. He threw 44 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings, the seventh-longest streak in major-league history, the year before. Game 5 was his masterpiece. Until it wasn't.

Blue Jays hitters must fulfill potential

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette still have something to prove. Is this the year they do it? (Kevin Sousa / USA Today)

ZiPS projected record: 88-74

2023 record: 89-73

We've grown accustomed to thinking the Blue Jays will be absolute mashers on offense. But while the core is mostly still together (bye, Matt Chapman), it's sort of put-up-or-shut-up time for a few guys.

Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the MVP candidate of 2021, or a nice player whose OPS starts with a seven? Bo Bichette seems legit, but will his defense catch up to his bat? Was last year just a down year for George Springer, or is age catching up? For that matter, which version of Alejandro Kirk is the real one?

Further, outside Daulton Varsho, do they have enough left-handed hitters? Kevin Kiermaier is a Gold Glover, but not a menace at the plate. Neither is super-utility wiz Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the right side.

For all the recognizable names in the lineup, the Blue Jays' strength lies more on the pitching side. Despite a disastrous 2023 campaign from 2022 Cy Young third-place finisher Alek Manoah, Toronto still had four pitchers — Kevin Gausman (who is a bit banged up), José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi — make 30 or more starts, and they each had an ERA of 3.86 or lower. If Manoah can rebound when he's back from injury (Bowden Francis will start until then), that's a top-tier rotation. The bullpen has some studs as well, despite Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson starting the season on the IL. Tim Mayza was great last year, as was Francis.

Maybe the presence of Justin Turner is enough to jell the clubhouse and kick everyone else into gear. Or maybe Toronto native Joey Votto — in camp on a minor-league deal — will make the team and help (while adding a left-handed bat). Either way, for Toronto to even think about bumping the Orioles off the AL East perch, the bats will have to live up to their potential.

Key departures: 1B/DH Brandon Belt, 3B Matt Chapman, RHP Adam Cimber, INF Santiago Espinal, RHP Jordan Hicks, RHP Jay Jackson, INF/OF Whit Merrifield, LHP Hyun Jin Ryu

Key arrivals: INF/OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, RHP Yariel Rodriguez, 1B/3B Justin Turner, 1B/DH Joey Votto (MiLB deal)

Prospect corner: LHP Ricky Tiedemann leads Keith Law's list of top 20 Blue Jays prospects; he's one of three in the system to have made Law's Top 100 list.

The Tigers could be better. Will they be?

ZiPS projected record: 77-85

2023 record: 78-84

Here are two very different possibilities:

• In the first, Colt Keith provides an immediate payoff for the team that extended him before he played his first big-league game. Parker Meadows has a massive breakout season. Spencer Torkelson builds on last year's 31-homer breakout and becomes a star. Riley Greene stays healthy, Kerry Carpenter proves that last year's 20-homer campaign was no fluke, and Javy Báez returns to his "El Mago" days.

• Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty looks like Cardinals Flaherty and nothing like Orioles Flaherty, Kenta Maeda and Tarik Skubal repeat their 2023 seasons and Casey Mize finally fulfills his destiny. The pick-ups of Shelby Miller and Andrew Chafin bolster the bullpen, and the Tigers push for a division title.

• The other version isn't hard to imagine, because a lot of those things are far from a guarantee. Keith hasn't played an MLB game, and Meadows has only played 37. Greene hasn't stayed healthy. Báez has been awful. Flaherty was bad in Baltimore, and last year was a career year for Skubal. Chafin and Miller are 33 years old, which isn't ancient, but arms are volatile.

Opening Day isn't until tomorrow, so let's lean into the optimism while it lasts: there's enough talent here to make the Tigers significantly better, even after losing Rodriguez in free agency. Now let's see what they do with it.

Key departures: LHP Matthew Boyd, DH Miguel Cabrera, RHP Jose Cisnero, OF Austin Meadows, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, INF Zack Short, RHP Spencer Turnbull

Key arrivals: 1B/OF Mark Canha, LHP Andrew Chafin, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Kenta Maeda, RHP Shelby Miller, INF Gio Urshela

Prospect corner: However this season goes, there's reason to believe it's the beginning of another good era in Detroit, as Max Clark tops Keith Law's top 20 Tigers prospects list; he's one of five in the system who made Law's Top 100 list.

Handshakes and High Fives

Among Spencer Strider's quirks, says David O'Brien: keeping notes to write down stand-up comedy ideas.

Fabian Ardaya paints Shohei Ohtani's former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara as someone who served as a "buffer" between the star and the organization.

Jayson Stark unearthed more than two dozen numbers on the stars, trends and minutia of the game in his annual 25 numbers that define baseball column.

Chandler Rome has a great profile on Alex Bregman's growth and maturity, as the soon-to-be 30-year-old third baseman enters a contract year.

Do you like predictions? Great! Here's Keith Law's predictions column, here's how the computers think it will go and here are Jim Bowden's awards picks.

More previews: Our staff digs into the NL East and AL East.

Brandon Lowe is back, just when the Rays need him the most.

Richard Deitsch examines the many pitfalls of the increasingly close relationship between sports and gambling.

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(Top file photo of Jordan Montgomery: Bailey Orr / Texas Rangers / Getty Images)

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