2024 NFL Draft: 10 Predictions with Under a Month to Go

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2024 NFL Draft: 10 Predictions with Under a Month to Go

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Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthyJoe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

If the NFL draft were predictable, it wouldn't be the hallmark event of the NFL offseason. There wouldn't be a torrential downpour of mock drafts every spring or endless discourse about the 257 picks that will be made over the three-day process.

From trades up and down the board to unexpected falls and the rumor mill churning out a mixture of smokescreens and legitimate buzz, it's a whirlwind that never fails to create storylines.

There's a lot to sort out, and with a quarterback class that could have up to six first-round picks, the mayhem could be even more pronounced than usual.

So let's dive into this year's chaos through the lens of 10 predictions. Considering free agency, the trade market and various pieces of relevant draft buzz, here are 10 projections for the 2024 event with under a month to go.

Arizona Cardinals Will Trade No. 4 Pick

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Arizona Cardinals general manager Monti OssenfortChristian Petersen/Getty Images

Arizona Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort channeled his inner Sonny Weaver Jr. in last year's draft. Trading out of the No. 3 pick only to come back up the board to No. 6 to draft Paris Johnson Jr., giving them a stockpile of picks while still nabbing their guy.

This year, the Cards hold a lot of power with the No. 4 pick and they could be wheeling and dealing once more.

Ossenfort has already told media that the Cardinals are open to discussing trading out of the fourth slot in the first round.

There has been buzz for just about every pick in the top three receiving trade interest, but the No. 4 pick is seemingly the most likely to be traded. While the three teams at the top of the draft all need a quarterback, the Cardinals don't.

Maye and Daniels are both considered top-five picks. McCarthy has been shooting up draft boards, and Harrison is the No. 1-rated prospect overall on our big board.

The Cardinals could consider taking Harrison Jr. for themselves. They need a No. 1 receiver and Harrison fits the bill. But the prospect of picking up multiple first-round picks outweighs one receiver, especially when this class has so much talent at the position.

The Cards are one of the most intriguing teams in the draft and will have a massive impact on the top 10 picks.

J.J. McCarthy Will Be a Minnesota Viking

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J.J. McCarthyDavid Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

J.J. McCarthy has become the lightning-rod prospect of this draft. His rumored ascent up draft boards is reminiscent of Mac Jones a few years ago.

Early in the draft process, Jones was considered to be a second-rounder. Then he was moved up media draft boards into the first round. Then rumors began cropping up that the Niners had actually traded up to No. 3 with Jones in mind.

By the time the draft rolled around, Jones was a popular pick to the Niners at No. 3.

Jones and McCarthy are different prospects. However, McCarthy has seen a similar skyrocketing stock in draft rumors. The latest has even shifted his odds to become the No. 2 pick as he's been connected to the Washington Commanders.

There are so many rumors about the Michigan quarterback that it's hard to parse out where he'll end up being draft, so instead, we'll make a proclamation about who he ends up playing for.

The Minnesota Vikings.

The Vikings haven't hidden their interest in a quarterback. They finally got off the Kirk Cousins contract carousel, and signing Sam Darnold is the only corresponding move they've made.

Their move to trade with the Texans for the 23rd overall pick for second-rounders in 2024 and 2025 feels like a beefing up of the ammo to move up in the draft.

Whether McCarthy falls all the way to No. 11 or the Vikes move up to get him, it feels like destiny that he'll be wearing purple and gold.

The Falcons Will Take the First Defensive Player at No. 8

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Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem MorrisStacy Revere/Getty Images

If it weren't for the Atlanta Falcons, a defensive player might not be taken in the top 10.

The top of the class skews to the offense. The first eight players on our big board are offensive players, including two quarterbacks, three wide receivers, two offensive tackles and a tight end.

However, prospects 9-12 are defensive players at premium positions. Jared Verse and Dallas Turner are edge-rushers with high upside, while Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold are in a compelling battle for CB1 honors.

The teams line up well to keep things offense-heavy. Every team picking in the top 10, except for the Titans, was in the bottom third of the league in offensive EPA per play. The Titans just happen to have a need at tackle and could have either Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu available at No. 7.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have spent six of their last seven first-round picks on offense and need blue-chip talent on the defense. The offense has a new man in charge in coordinator Zac Robinson and a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins. Those two have been brought into optimize an offense that has Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London.

The Falcons need a young foundational piece of the defense to pair with A.J. Terrell. Expect Verse or Turner to be heading to Atlanta as the top defensive player taken.

Chicago Bears Will Trade Down from No. 9

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Bears general manager Ryan PolesMichael Reaves/Getty Images

Last year, the Bears won big when they traded down from No. 1 to No. 9. The trade that brought Bryce Young to Carolina also brought the Bears the No. 1 pick in this year's draft and D.J. Moore, and it will continue to pay off in 2025 when they get another second-round pick.

Poles could pull off another move down the board that should pay dividends.

The Bears have the ninth pick, which could wind up being a valuable spot. It's not hard to envision Rome Odunze still on the board as well as the top tackles outside of Joe Alt along with top defensive prospects.

However, the Bears' trade to add Keenan Allen to their receiving corps alleviates the stress to find another receiver in the top 10, and Braxton Jones has played well enough at left tackle that the Bears have some flexibility.

They also only have four total picks for the whole draft. Trading down from No. 9 would be a good way to change that. They will likely have Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick. Another receiver would be nice, but getting more bites at the apple as they continue to build the roster would be good too.

If four quarterbacks end up going in the top 10, it will push some of the premier talent in the draft to the back end of the top 10, which should lead to trade offers. The Bears could profit once again.

Brock Bowers Will Fall to Back Half of First Round

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Brock BowersDavid J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Brock Bowers is an undeniably talented player. There's a reason that he's the No. 2 player overall on our big board.

But positional value and the draft order could dictate that he goes much later than expected on draft day. Teams have rarely used a top-10 pick on a tight end in recent years. Kyle Pitts was the fourth pick in 2021 and the Lions took T.J. Hockenson eighth in 2019.

Pitts has underperformed that draft slot while Hockenson isn't even with the Lions anymore. Both are talented players, but it's hard for a tight end to return the value of a top-10 pick.

Even last year's tight end class, which featured Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer and Sam LaPorta, only generated one first-round pick. There was a run on them early in the second round that included Mayer, LaPorta and Luke Musgrave.

Outside of the top 10, the first fit that really stands out is the Indianapolis Colts at 15. However, their need at cornerback could make them go to a different direction.

That could see Bowers become a great value for a team picking in the back half of the round.

Wide Receiver Class Will Tie First-Round Record

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Mallk Nabers (L) and Brian Thomas Jr. (R)Michael Chang/Getty Images

The wide receiver revolution will hit another milestone at the 2024 NFL draft.

The cost of a premium receiver has only gone up in recent years. The 2022 offseason reset the market for top-tier receivers from a contract standpoint. That market will likely be reset all over again when Justin Jefferson gets his second contract.

So the same reason that we see edge-rushers and tackles fly off the board every year is the reason that this wide receiver class has the potential to at least tie the record for most wide receivers taken in the first round.

Right now, the mark is seven.

The 2004 class, anchored by Larry Fitzgerald, had seven receivers go in the first round.

Our big board features nine receivers in the top 50, so the talent is there for the record to be at least tied if not broken.

As an added prediction, we will look back on this class as one of the best receiver classes of all time. That 2004 class had Larry Fitzgerald, but Roy Williams (one) was the only receiver to make a Pro Bowl.

Bo Nix Won't Be a First-Round Pick

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Bo NixChristian Petersen/Getty Images

Bo Nix is gaining steam as a first-round prospect as the draft gets closer. Based on mock drafts over the last week, he has become the most popular pick to the Broncos at No. 12, per NFL Mock Draft Database.

This feels like a good time to remind everyone that Will Levis' No. 1 pick odds skyrocketed just before the draft and he ultimately went in the second round.

Quarterback draft stock can be difficult to gauge. It's easy to see how the dots have been connected to get to the Nix-to-the Broncos movement. They have a clear need at quarterback after releasing Russell Wilson, but they would have a hard time justifying the kind of trade package it would take to move up the board for the higher-ranked prospects at quarterback.

That being said, it's hard to wrap one's head around Nix going in the first round, let alone the first half of the first round.

Nix is already 24 years old. By comparison, J.J. McCarthy is just 21. The age isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but it does change expectations. With five years of starting at Auburn and Oregon, Nix should be a well-rounded prospect with few holes in his game.

That's not the case, though. Derrik Klassen noted in his scouting report of Nix that he's "still an incomplete player for someone who has played so much football, but his tools are undeniable."

Nix's decision-making at Auburn was a concern. He cleaned up a lot of that at Oregon and only threw three picks in his final season, but a lot of that was due to an offense that thrived on screens and RPOs.

Nix makes a lot more sense as an early second-round target, and that's where he will likely be drafted.

Miami Dolphins Will Trade Back From No. 21

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Dolphins general manager Chris GrierJoel Auerbach/Getty Images

For anyone who says the salary cap isn't real, the Miami Dolphins' offseason is a great counterpoint. They have been forced to make some really difficult decisions based on how they've managed the cap.

Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt both bolted in free agency. They had to cut Xavien Howard, Emmanuel Ogbah and Jerome Baker to clear cap space, and they've mostly had to shop the bargain aisle in free agency.

Draft picks are a precious commodity for teams against the cap because it allows them to restock their talent base with cheap rookie contracts.

The problem for the Dolphins is that they don't have a great war chest of picks. Various trades have left them with just six picks, and only two of them are in the top 150. They rank 31st in draft capital by Tankathon's metrics.

That makes them a logical choice for any team who might be looking to move up to the early 20s.

One scenario could see that become an important spot for cornerbacks. The Eagles and Vikings pick 22nd and 23rd, respectively, and have needs at cornerback. Both Cooper DeJean and Kool-Aid McKinstry could still be available at that spot.

It just makes too much sense for the Dolphins to be willing to listen if any team is willing to part with picks to get its guy.

No Running Backs Selected in Top 50

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Notre Dame running back Audric EstimeKara Durrette/Getty Images

You have to go back 10 years to find a draft where there wasn't a running back taken in the top 50 of the draft. Bishop Sankey was the first back taken in the 2014 draft at No. 54 to the Tennessee Titans.

The league was mostly right to steer clear of that class of backs. Carlos Hyde led the group with 4,979 career rushing yards.

We could be witnessing a similarly weak class in 2024.

Notre Dame's Audric Estimé is the only running back that's ranked in the top 50 on our big board at No. 41. Florida State's Trey Benson isn't too far off at No. 52.

Estimé caught attention at the combine for the wrong reason, running a 4.71 40-yard dash. Concerns on that might be overblown given how many big runs he ripped off with the Irish, but it is a factor to consider whether anyone will be willing to spend a top-50 pick on him.

Estimé goes to the Chargers at No. 37 in the Scouting Department's mock draft. It's a logical fit. We know how much Jim Harbaugh loves the running game, and the powerful back would certainly signal the kind of shift he'll make to the Chargers offense.



However, the Chargers are a cap-strapped team with other serious needs. Cornerback is a strong possibility with that selection.

Several teams were aggressive in getting their running backs during free agency. Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler are just some of the notable names who were on the move.

That's as strong a signal as any that teams won't make running back a priority.

Michael Penix Jr. Will Be a Los Angeles Ram

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Michael Penix Jr.Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Michael Penix Jr. is one of the most interesting prospects in this year's draft. The 23-year-old became well-known around the country this year for ripping shots downfield to Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk en route to a national championship game appearance.

His arm strength and athleticism were easy to see in Seattle, but there are some red flags that keep him from being a slam-dunk prospect, though.

Injury concerns and his ability to handle pressure in the pocket are chief among them. Penix suffered four season-ending injuries while playing at Indiana. That includes two ACL tears.

The Rams don't immediately spring to mind when you think of quarterback-needy teams. Matthew Stafford is still playing well, and they signed Jimmy Garoppolo. However, Field Yates of ESPN recently highlighted the Rams as a potential "sleeper" team to target a quarterback.

It makes sense. General manager Les Snead has not been one to take a traditional approach to the draft. Stafford is 36 and has some serious injuries of his own on his resume, and Garoppolo has proved that his best role is as a backup at this point.

Penix is similar to Stafford in his penchant for making aggressive throws and having the arm strength to test secondaries all over the field.

If Penix makes it out of the first round, the Rams could be a surprise team to move up in the second to take the southpaw.