Will Climate Change allow India to hold another summer elections?

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India has been sweltering under unprecedented heatwaves ever since the beginning of summer in April, which is more pronounced in east and peninsular India than in the north and northwest of the country.

India has been sweltering under unprecedented heatwaves ever since the beginning of summer in April, which is more pronounced in east and peninsular India than in the north and northwest of the country. These extreme heatwaves have coincided with India's General Elections 2024, a two-and-a-half-month electoral process.

The voting is taking place in seven phases between April 19 and June 1 where nearly 97 crores people are expected to exercise their voting rights. As elections enter the key phase at the beginning of May, the temperatures have also started peaking.

Globally as well, each month has been setting a new record. The last 10 months, since June 2023, have been the hottest on record, courtesy a super El Nino. April 2024 also seems to be following similar temperature trends and will most likely be the 11th hottest month in a row. Sheer temperatures and humidity will increasingly make it harder to work in the open and India's ongoing election process has shown how much the complexities of weather and climate impact the voting and canvassing process play into when the Indian elections are held in future.

WHAT LED TO INTENSE HEATWAVE IN INDIA?

The state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) had already predicted more than double the average heatwaves during April-June, 10 to 20 days of heat waves against a normal of 4 to 8 days to be precise. The heat this year is expected to be worse than 2023, which has been the warmest year on record till date.

Mercury has been settling between 42-45 degrees, even soaring to 47 degrees in some parts of the country. April has seen one of the longest spells of heatwave extending up to 15 days. Parts of East and Peninsular India have been the worst hit, which are also battling humidity.

Kerala is under the grip of a record heatwave and has reported 10 deaths due to heat stress while waiting in voting queues. According to Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA), around 413 heat-related health issues like sunburn, rashes, and heat stroke cases have been reported until April 22. Odisha has also recorded one death and around 124 have been hospitalised due to heat-related illnesses across 16 districts.

Maximum temperatures across India show large parts of the country in a large red mass, indicating above normal day temperatures over most parts of the country.

The unrepresented rise in temperatures can be attributed to the absence of pre-Monsoon rain and thundershowers during April. With this, countrywide cumulative rainfall was deficit to the tune of 20 per cent. Rainfall during April 2024 over South Peninsular India (12.6 mm) was the fifth lowest since 1901 and 2nd lowest since 2001. This was followed by East and Northeast India, which was a deficit of 39 per cent.

According to Climate Central, a US-based organisation working on climate change, day temperatures were at least twice as likely because of climate change. The temperature conditions in the southern half of the country had a much stronger climate change influence (Figure below, right).

The fingerprint of climate change is especially apparent along both coasts. In coastal areas, 37°C is commonly used as a threshold for dangerous heat. This temperature occurs throughout most of the country, including along the eastern coast. Thirty-six out of 51 major cities had three or more days above 37 degrees Celsius since the start of the election season (April 19-April 30), and 18 cities had more than three days above 40 degrees Celsius.

"Persistence of anticyclones over Oman and adjoining areas and over Andhra Pradesh did not cause the formation of any weather systems. In the wake of this, the sea breeze was cut off over Odisha and West Bengal for most days, paving way for unabated hot winds from land, leading to soaring temperatures. However, due to the passage of Western Disturbances at regular intervals, heatwaves did not set in over the northwestern plains. In addition to this, remnants of the receding El Nino have also contributed to the heat stress," said Mrityunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD.

Heatwave records in April 2024

❖ Number of heat wave days in April 2024 is the highest in the last 15 years (2010-2024) over Gangetic West Bengal and the highest over Odisha during the last 9 years (2017- 2024).

❖ 2nd longest spell of heatwave of 18 days in the last 15 years in Odisha as compared to 21 days in 2016.

❖ Highest minimum temperature since 1901 was recorded in East & Northeast India at 22.19°C, with an anomaly of 1.78°C

❖ Second-highest minimum and maximum temperature since 1901 was recorded in Peninsular India at 25.8°C and 37.57°C, respectively.

"Heatwaves in India are by far the deadliest type of extreme weather event. At the same time, they are the type of extremes most strongly increasing in a warming world. As long as the world continues to burn fossil fuels, events like these will become an increasingly common disaster," said Dr Friederike Otto, Scientist and Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment.

As we enter into the peak summer month of May, we are likely to witness above normal heatwave days by about 5-8 days over south Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada and Gujarat region and by about 2-4 days over remaining parts of Rajasthan, east Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Chhattisgarh, interior Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, north interior Karnataka and Telangana and isolated pockets of north Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh.

EL NINO AND GLOBAL WARNING: DOUBLE WHAMMY FOR THE WORLD

El Nino, a phase of an oceanic phenomenon, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a naturally occurring climate phase that brings warmer weather throughout the globe and can increase the risk of extreme weather.

The impact of global temperatures has been changing the dynamics of several weather phenomena. Many scientists believe the effects of climate change will be intensified by El Niño because increased global temperatures are themselves associated with increased extreme weather events. Therefore, the coinciding effects of both elevated temperatures and El Niño events are predicted to induce record-breaking spikes in global temperatures, and a further increased probability that catastrophic weather conditions will occur.

The El Nino in 2015/2016 coincided with the hottest year on record, while the super El Niño in 2023 superseded the former as the warmest year.

El Niño and global warming together doubled the impact in terms of widespread droughts, wildfires, floods, and agricultural disruption, migration, leading to ecosystem instability in some regions.

Meanwhile, La Niña, the counterpart of El Niño which is characterised by cooler temperatures, have also shown its true traits. La Niña years have also witnessed record-breaking global temperatures, demonstrating the long-term warming trend driven by climate change. For example, the La Niña year in 2022 was ranked as the fifth-warmest year on record.

CAN INDIA'S ELECTION DATES TO BE SHIFTED TO SUITABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS?

Considering the situation, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has taken the necessary action by constituting a task force to deal with the impacts of intense heatwave on voters. This task force comprises officials from ECI, IMD, NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority) and the Federal Health Ministry. However, experts argue that these measures have a limited impact, questioning the timing of elections.

The last 10 years have been the hottest years on record on the planet, as shown in the figure below. The last two general elections in India overlap this hot decade, in 2014 and 2019. Global average temperatures reached close to 1°C in 2014, while 2019 saw a sharp rise with mercury soaring beyond 1.2°C.

According to the combined NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) data, global temperatures in 2023 ranked highest in the 144-year record, at 1.4°C. NOAA has also warned that 2024 had a one-in-three chance of hitting even higher temperatures, and a 99% chance that it would rank among the top five warmest years in human history. With this, chances are that 2024 may follow the same path.

Climate scientists have put India in a high risk category from severe heatwaves. Terrestrial heatwaves are projected to increase by six-fold in this region if emissions are to continue—which raises concerns for the vulnerable population that is projected to reach 1 billion by 2050. The current weather trends are making everyone question if there is a provision that allows the ECI to conduct elections during more conducive weather in the year.

Being a democratic nation, India holds Parliamentary elections every five years. As per the Constitution of India, the ECI has a six-month window before the 5-year tenure ends to conduct union elections. Simultaneously, state level elections are also scheduled in those years.

Ashok Lavasa, Former Election Commissioner of India cited an instance in 1951 when the Lok Sabha Polls for upper areas of Himachal Pradesh were conducted in September, while the rest of the country voted during October. This was done as the upper reaches of Himachal Pradesh would have been engulfed in snow during elections which were scheduled from October to December. He suggested that it is possible to amend election dates to an extent but it would need serious consideration of other factors as well.

"Weather conditions are always taken into account to avert major disruption. There are mitigation measures which are taken well beforehand, like arrangements for making people stand in queue in cool places, availability of drinking water, etc. There is a provision by which the ECI can conduct elections anytime in 180 days, but they have to be extremely careful that the term of the government is not curtailed even by a day. Another problem is that the month of February-March is exam time in schools and colleges, so one cannot disrupt the academic cycle as well. Maximum precautions are taken to minimise the extremes. However, one may consider this, if (temperatures) continue to increase," said Ashok Lavasa, Former Election Commissioner of India.

Citing similar views, OP Rawat, former Chief Election Commissioner, suggested that this problem could be solved by mutual understanding among all the parties. He suggested, "There is a six-month window to hold Parliamentary elections. For the current tenure, elections have to be held between 17 December 2023 and 16 June 2024. However, since state assembly elections were scheduled in November and December, Parliamentary elections are usually conducted after a gap of at least 2-3 months. Therefore, union elections 2024 were announced in March. To avoid such a situation in future, the election commission must call for an all-party meeting where it can collectively agree on delaying the state elections by two months and hold the parliamentary elections during the 6-month window. Now for the next general elections in 2029, the window falls between January 1 to June 30. The spring season (February and March) is the best time to hold the elections. Or else, there should be an amendment in the law that empowers the Election Commission to conduct a state assembly election a little earlier."

There has been debate doing rounds of lower voter turnout due to the ongoing heatwave, making it to national and international headlines. Whether there is a correlation between higher temperatures and lower voter turnout remains a debate, but scientists are confident that the impact of increasing heat stress cannot be ignored.

The need to integrate the impacts of climate change in policymaking

Heatwaves have claimed more lives in India than other natural hazards, except for tropical cyclones. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human-caused climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heatwaves since the 1950s and additional warming will further increase their frequency and intensity.

Last year, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) reported that rising global temperatures had made a South Asian heatwave 30 times more likely. The group has warned that global warming will make record-breaking temperatures in India and Pakistan much more frequent.

"Clearly one cannot deny the role of climate change in these erratic weather patterns, be it in monsoon, winter or summer season. Prolonged dry seasons can lead to adverse weather conditions, which can become more intense due to natural phenomena like ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Weather patterns are not behaving in a manner they should have because of the rise in global temperatures. Anthropogenic factors have doubled the impact of climate change. Ongoing severe heatwave conditions are one such example before us," said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President - Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

In fact, recent years have witnessed heat-related deaths even in conditions with ambient temperatures less than the threshold criteria of the operationally monitored heatwaves over the Indian region as well. This is on account of increased moisture content due to warming of the oceans.

Severe heatwaves can exacerbate chronic health conditions, vector-borne diseases, air pollution, droughts and other socio-economic pressures, causing higher mortality and morbidity. Heatwaves with severe consequences have increased and are expected to become more frequent in Indian climatic and geographical conditions. As per future studies, the temperature could rise from ñ1.2 degrees Celsius to ñ3.5 degrees Celsius and will start decreasing by the end of 2050.

Published By:

Vadapalli Nithin Kumar

Published On:

May 7, 2024