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Why the Republic of Ireland would be better off losing to the Netherlands next month

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The Republic of Ireland find themselves in a bizarre situation where they may boost their chances of qualifying for next summer's European Championship by losing to the Netherlands next month, although The Athletic understands UEFA is relaxed over the unusual scenario.

Questions have been raised over the sporting integrity of the tournament's qualification process because the Republic of Ireland would be better served by a defeat than a victory in Amsterdam on November 18.

That's because their only hope of qualifying for next summer's tournament is through reaching the play-offs via the Nations League and not through their position in their qualification group, which we examine in more detail below.

Beating Netherlands could therefore see Greece finish second instead of Ronald Koeman's side, a result that would consign the Dutch to the play-offs because of their Nations League performance — in turn limiting the Republic of Ireland's chances of success through that route.

But, despite the additional scrutiny on the fixture, The Athletic understands there is no prospect of UEFA amending the rules to Euro 2024 qualification in any way. Instead, European football's governing body is relaxed about the situation, which remains statistically improbable.

The Football Association of Ireland (FAI) has been contacted for comment.

The situation however raises serious questions over the complicated qualification process for the European Championship. We examine how this situation came to pass below.

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Why is it better for the Republic of Ireland to lose to the Netherlands?

The Republic of Ireland find themselves in the unusual position of being better served losing their next Euro 2024 qualifier. Stephen Kenny's side can no longer make it to next summer's tournament directly as they have lost five of their seven matches in Group B.

PosTeamGPPTSGD

1

France (Q)

6

18

12

2

Netherlands

6

12

3

3

Greece

7

12

6

4

Republic of Ireland

7

6

5

Gibraltar

6

-21

But there is still a slim chance of them qualifying…

How can they still qualify?

It is a very complex situation so let us attempt to explain it for you.

Euro 2024 will be made up of 24 teams: the host nation (Germany), 10 group winners from qualifying, 10 runners up from qualifying and three sides via the play-off route.

12 teams will contest the play-offs and these sides will be determined by the 2022-23 Nations League campaign, rather than from Euro 2024 qualifying, but if they have already qualified they will be replaced by the next best-ranked team in their league.

The Nations League, as a format, is split into four leagues: A, B, C and D. There will be one team from League A that qualifies for Euro 2024 through the play-offs, as well as one team from League B and one from League C.

Nations League group winners in League A, B and C are guaranteed a play-off berth. Those teams are:

However, in the cases of Spain, Scotland and Turkey, they will not be needed as they have qualified for Euro 2024 directly, with games to spare.

That means their play-off berths are allocated to the next-best ranked team of the league. As the 2022-23 Nations League campaign is complete, the league positions are final — here is how they look:

League ALeague BLeague CLeague D

1. Spain

17. Israel

33. Georgia

49. Estonia

2. Croatia

18. Bosnia & Herz.

34. Greece

50. Latvia

3. Italy

19. Serbia

35. Turkey

51. Moldova

4. Netherlands

20. Scotland

36. Kazakhstan

52. Malta

5. Denmark

21. Finland

37. Luxembourg

53. Andorra

6. Portugal

22. Ukraine

38. Azerbaijan

54. San Marino

7. Belgium

23. Iceland

39. Kosovo

55. Liechtenstein

8. Hungary

24. Norway

40. Bulgaria

9. Switzerland

25. Slovenia

41. Faroe Islands

10. Germany

26. Rep. of Ireland

42. North Macedonia

11. Poland

27. Albania

43. Slovakia

12. France

28. Montengro

44. Northern Ireland

13. Austria

29. Romania

45. Cyprus

14. Czech Rep.

30. Sweden

46. Belarus

15. England

31. Armenia

47. Lithuania

16. Wales

32. Russia

48. Gibraltar

If fewer than four teams in League A require a play-off berth, the first reserve is the first-placed team in League D, which is Estonia. Any further reserves will be taken from League B, although Nations League group winners cannot face teams from a higher league.

So, Israel and Bosnia & Herzegovina will not face a team from League A in their play-off.

Based on the Euro 2024 qualifying groups heading into the final round of fixtures, these are the teams that will play in the play-offs:

But, if Netherlands — who are currently in a qualification place in Group B for Euro 2024 — do not qualify directly, they will take a play-off place as a result of winning their Nations League group.

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So, what do Republic of Ireland need?

Put simply, Republic of Ireland need as many teams above them in the Nations League rankings to qualify directly.

The qualification picture in Group B is simple. France are already through to Euro 2024 while Netherlands and Greece are battling for the runners-up spot.

They are level on points in second and third, but Greece have played one extra game. As Netherlands hold the head-to-head advantage, they need three more points from their final two qualifiers to confirm second place.

They play the bottom two teams in the group, Republic of Ireland and Gibraltar, in the next international break. Meanwhile, Greece play against France, making it unlikely Netherlands drop out of second.

But results at any level cannot be taken for granted and it is unequivocal that Republic of Ireland's hopes of reaching Euro 2024 are better served losing against Netherlands, a result which would remove any qualification doubt heading into the two final Group B fixtures.

Presuming Netherlands go on to qualify through Group B, Kenny's side still need a lot of teams to qualify directly.

Nine nations have already qualified: Germany, Austria, Belgium, England, France, Portugal, Scotland, Spain and Turkey. Based on the current group standings, nine more teams ahead of Republic of Ireland in the Nations League rankings are set to qualify.

As things stand, they need two more play-off berths to come available. That means, altogether, 11 more nations ahead of Republic of Ireland in the Nations League rankings need to qualify directly for Euro 2024 for them to be allocated a play-off berth.

So, that is 11 of the following nations: Croatia, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland, Czech Republic, Wales, Israel, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Finland, Ukraine and Iceland.

It is worth noting that, of those teams, the following cannot both qualify directly as they are in the same group:

Republic of Ireland need almost everything to work in their favour.

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(Photo: Getty Images)

Ed Mackey is an Explainer Journalist for The Athletic, based in Leicester. He is a Football Journalism graduate from the University of Derby.

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