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Men's Lacrosse - Game 15, Duke, NCAA Quarterfinals at Hofstra University Saturday at 2:30 PM Season Records: #11 Maryland (9-5), #2 Duke (13-5) Series Record: Maryland, 62-20 Last Meeting: 2021, 14-5, Maryland in NCAA Final Four Media: ESPNU Stats: HERE Quick Preview Former longtime ACC rivals, who scrimmaged each other in January in College Park, meet in the NCAA Quarterfinals. Both teams easily dispatched their first-round opponents - Utah for Duke and Princeton for Maryland - but only one of those results was expected. The Terps, who entered the Princeton game as a 1.5-goal home underdog, staggered into that game but uncorked its most complete performance of the season. Duke, meanwhile, comes in riding the ACC hype train. They're loaded with graduate transfers and five-star talent across its roster. Maryland coach John Tillman owns a 9-1 all-time record in NCAA Quarterfinal games with his only loss occurring in 2019 against Virginia - coincidentally also at Hofstra - on the infamous "pipe goal" by Virginia that sent that game into overtime. Statistical Comparison Using Lacrosse Reference, the teams have the following national statistical ranking profiles. Duke RPI: 2, Adj Off Eff: 2, Adj Def Eff: 3, Adj Faceoff: 17, Adj Goalie: 7 Maryland RPI: 6, Adj Off Eff: 28, Adj Def Eff: 5, Adj Faceoff: 3, Adj Goalie: 14 The Opponent Talent and hype. Duke coach John Danowski has loaded his roster with some of the best high school talent in the nation, particularly from the famed St. Anthony's High School in Long Island. Brennan O'Neill (51g, 27a) won the Tewaaraton Award in 2023 and was the top-ranked recruit in the nation coming out high school 2020. FOGO Jake Nasso (5g, 3a, 57 percent, 120gb) was the top-ranked FOGO in the nation - the 12th ranked recruit overall - in the same class as O'Neill. Aidan Danenza (21g, 12a) ran midfield on that same St. Anthony's team and came to Duke as the 26th ranked recruit. Then Andrew McAdorey (28g, 9a) joined his former St. Anthony's teammates as the second-ranked recruit in the nation in 2021. Maryland Football Recruiting Scoop: Dominoes at a key spot Add in the 2019 third-ranked recruit in Canadian inside finisher Dyson Williams (55g, 4a) at attack with O'Neill, and Duke has serious size and talent at attack. Oh, then Josh Zawada (33g, 44a) - himself a five-star high school recruit in the 2019 class - graduate transferred to Duke after setting program scoring records at Michigan. Size, talent, and experience at attack. Benn Johnson (21g, 7a) - the fifth-ranked high school recruit in the nation in 2023 - has come on at the midfield, and he joins McAdorey, Max Sloat (18g, 8a), Danenza, and Charlie Balsamo (6g, 8a) running through the midfield. McAdorey and Balsamo give the Blue Devils positional flexibility. McAdorey uses his speed in the midfield, but has also bumped down to attack where his strength and quickness give defenses problems. Balsamo spent a lot of time at attack last season but seems to play more at the midfield this season. He has similar traits to McAdorey. If Ole Miss redshirts Miss Americas, it seems Danowski redshirts, rarely plays, or changes positions of former five-star high school recruits - Jack Gray (1g, 1a, 16bg, 4ct) and Keith Boyer struggle to break into Duke's talented lineup. Partially, this is due to Danowski's success in using the transfer portal to bring in graduate student players. Grant Mitchell (3g, 3a) transferred to Durham from Ohio State and has provided a spark in the late season. Alex Slusher (2g) was an All-Ivy League performer at Princeton but barely sees the field in Durham. All told, eight Blue Devils started their careers elsewhere before coming to Durham. The star power, at least from high school rankings, does not stop on the offensive end. Tyler Carpenter (3g, 51gb, 16ct), Kenny Brower (27gb, 19ct), and Henry Bard (22gb, 15ct) comprise Duke's starting close defense. Carpenter has extensive LSM experience and likes to run. Will Frisoli (1g, 21gb, 6ct) is a solid and experienced LSM, as is Jake Wilson (3g, 15gb, 16ct). Brower, a first-team All-American, tends to draw the opponents' top attackman. Expect to hear a lot about Duke's vaunted short-stick defensive unit, which is led by Jake Caputo (3g, 10gb, 11ct) and Aidan Maguire (3g, 3a, 38gb, 14ct). Both can stay on offense. The aforementioned Gray - again, the former sixth-ranked recruit in his high school class - now plays defensive midfield. Similarly, Reed Landin (1g, 2gb), the former 29th ranked midfielder in his class, also plays defensive midfield. Charlie O'Connor (7gb, 2ct), a DMV-area product, rounds out the short-stick defensive crew. In goal, freshman Patrick Jamison (10ga, 54 percent) won the starting goalie spot from returning starter William Helm at the beginning of the season. Jamison, a Philadelphia-area product, has a similar style to Maryland's Logan McNaney. He is calm in goal and moves on quickly from giving up goals. If you only watched ESPN or ACC Network games, you would think that this Duke team is the lacrosse version of the "Murderers Row" 1927 New York Yankees. Inside the Match-Up Scratch beneath the talent and hype, however, and you will find flaws in this Duke team. Those flaws start with consistency. The Blue Devils have thrown in some clunkers on their way to an ACC runner-up season. Syracuse held the Blue Devils to just four goals, and the Blue Devils inexplicably dropped a 15-12 game to middling North Carolina in a game that saw the Tar Heels lead 15-6 with 10-minutes remaining in the game. In the Blue Devils' five losses, their offense falls off a cliff - registering just 29 percent efficiency. Duke's offense is predicated on getting players like O'Neill the ball in spots he likes. For him, that often means on the high wing where he can either run over the top of the defense or get under his defender. The hulking O'Neill has a hammer of a shot but is decidedly left-handed. Physical defenders, paradoxically for the large O'Neill, seem to bother him. He can also shoot Duke out of game - O'Neill takes a whopping 21 percent of Duke's shots. When O'Neill isn't isolating on the left wing, Zawada initiates the offense below the goal. Zawada is the primary offensive initiator and is responsible for 30 percent of Duke's assists. The Blue Devils like to use goal-line picks to get Zawada above the goal-line, and he is great at finding Williams in the crease. Duke loves to invert its midfielders to attack short-stick defenders behind the goal. This is where a player like McAdorey can cause significant problems for a defense. Duke's offense isn't complex. It relies on its uber-talented players to simply win match-ups. For its wealth of talent, the offense primarily relies on seven scorers. While some might expect Maryland's first-team All-American defender Ajax Zappitello to guard O'Neill, Zappitello has been known to cover the opponent's top initiator. That would be Zawada or McAdorey if he plays attack. In previous seasons, Maryland defensive coordinator Jesse Bernhardt has opted to use bigger defensemen on physically imposing attackmen like O'Neill. Colin Burlace might draw the O'Neill match-up, which leaves Jackson Canfield or Will Schaller to play off-ball against the constantly moving Williams in the crease. McAdorey again is a difficult match-up if he's in the midfield. He will likely draw a LSM match-up. Maryland is notorious for maintaining defensive assignments and being slow-to-slide on defense. Duke will spend the entire game trying to get Maryland to switch match-ups, particularly to get short-stick defenders on attackmen, while the Terps try to maintain their match-up integrity. Which offense shows up for the Terps? Last week, offensive coordinator Mike Phipps ran both Braden Erksa and Eric Malever through the box as midfielders. Malever, in particular, was a nightmare for Princeton to handle. With Malever and Erksa joining Ryan Siracusa or Jack Koras at midfield, Maryland's entire offense had an infusion of speed. The lineup changes also force defenses into uncomfortable choices about which midfielder to short-stick. When Princeton short-sticked Daniel Kelly at attack, he disrupted Princeton's entire defense by setting picks right at the goal-line. When Princeton overplayed the picks, Kelly slipped those picks and went to the goal for feeds. The smart picks also slowed Princeton's ability to slide to Eric Spanos, who started at attack. When the Terps inverted its midfielders and with Kelly setting picks, Spanos also roamed the crease area for scoring opportunities. Two final keys to watch. In Naso and Luke Wierman, you have two of the best FOGOs to come through college lacrosse over the past five years. Naso suffered a significant muscle injury during the end of the ACC season but did play last week against Utah. Wierman has exerted his dominance over the last few weeks of the season. If Wierman continues his hot play and if the Terps play fast like they did last week, the Terps will put up a lot of goals against a Blue Devil team that does not mind getting into up-and-down paced games. Finally, while Logan McNaney had a rough outing against Penn State, he has played very well in goal over the last month and half of the season. Against Princeton, McNaney looked particularly assertive. He was more vocal and demonstrative. Duke, on the other hand, starts a freshman in goal. Freshman goalies in NCAA tournament games can run hot or cold. Jamison has yet to experience the pressure of this type of environment. McNaney has. The Prediction Duke reportedly opened as a massive seven-goal favorite against the Terps, but that spread has dropped to a three-goal Duke favorite. Even that seems high. The Terps played its last game like it had nothing to lose, and that attitude primarily manifested in how fast the Terps played. Since taking the helm of the Maryland program, the only quarterfinal loss John Tillman has experienced came after a blown call. Most prognosticators have taken to the adage of "Never bet against a John Tillman-coached team in the NCAA Quarterfinals." Despite Duke's overwhelming talent, the Terps smart and physical play on defense will give the Blue Devils fits. If the Terps get up early on Duke, the Blue Devils have shown a habit of letting down and never recovering. Win the first quarter and you have a chance to win the game. Never bet against a John Tillman-coached team in the NCAA Quarterfinals. No reason to start now. IMS prediction: Terps 15-12. -- Want the latest Terps news delivered to your inbox FREE? Sign up for our email newsletter here and stay informed on Maryland basketball, football, recruiting and every other Terps storyline. And make sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Tiktok and Instagram! -- Don't miss any of our new video Terps content: Subscribe to InsideMDSports on YouTube and hit the notification bell so you know when new videos drop. -- Need a go-to Terps podcast? 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